Month: October 2013

Categories
Platforms

Is Android First Really a Myth?

Popular perception in the tech press is that iOS gets all the best apps first. With Android market share beginning to dwarf that of iOS globally, there’s lots of speculation around when developers will switch to Android first. Our data shows iOS is still the priority for startups in the U.S. but that doesn’t necessarily apply outside the high-growth consumer app market, or elsewhere around the globe.

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The importance of platform priority

Just over a week ago, Steve Cheney wrote the very widely shared “Why Android First is a Myth”. The post makes some well-reasoned points about an important issue for the future of the smartphone market. One of the things that makes iOS attractive to a significant subset of early adopters is that it gets most apps ahead of other platforms, sometimes exclusively. [tweetable]If most developers start targeting Android ahead of iOS then those users will switch platforms, taking their app and service spending with them[/tweetable]. Where the early adopters go, most of the rest of the market will eventually follow. As such, developer priorities are considered an early indicator of platform fortunes, particularly at the high end. So if, as Steve suggests, iOS is set to dominate Android in this area for many years yet then Apple will keep making the bulk of the profit in the smartphone market. So is he right?

Silicon Valley doesn’t dominate apps globally

The major problem with the “Why Android First is a Myth” argument is that it is incredibly Silicon-Valley-centric. Whilst the two major smartphone platforms may be developed in Silicon Valley and dominate globally, the content and services used on them does not follow that pattern. Although there are lots of apps in common between U.S. and European app store top charts, there’s still plenty of highly ranked local content in most countries. Looking at the top grossing charts of massive smartphone markets like South Korea, Japan & China, U.S. users would struggle to recognise the name of any publisher (major exceptions being Supercell and King.com from Finland and the U.K. respectively). Not only is the assumption that the apps that make a platform attractive are going to come from the U.S. (or even “the West”) flawed, the assumption that they’ll primarily come from “sophisticated startups” is as well.

Mobile messaging services provide a good example. While VC funded startups may be the way many new services get built in the U.S., WhatsApp being a typical case, the global competition is rather different. KakaoTalk comes from a startup of sorts, although founded by a former CEO of Korea’s internet giant NHN, while LINE came from the Japanese subsidiary of that same Korean internet giant. WeChat comes from Tencent, China’s largest internet company and one of the biggest in the world. It’s more than just how the apps get funded and built though, it’s the types of apps too. The breadth and depth of the app offering on a platform is essential to have all the apps that are important to any individual user, whether it be an app from their bank or niche apps catering to their interests. Otherwise the Windows Phone strategy of paying for the most popular apps to be ported would be a lot more successful. As Paul Graham says, VC funded startups are all about growth, so they have to address issues that they believe are relevant to very large markets. They don’t build more niche or local apps and they don’t build the essential extensions of existing services to mobile devices. This suggests that the platform preferences of a much wider range of developers are important, not just the “sophisticated” startup developers.

Global platform preferences

With this in mind, VisionMobile has a great source of data for monitoring this important platform priority trend. Our regular Developer Economics surveys ask thousands of developers to rank the platforms they use in priority order. Just looking at the data from the last survey on which platforms are most frequently cited as primary by developers in each country we can see strong geographic patterns.

[tweetable]In almost all countries there are a significant fraction of developers who treat Android as their primary platform[/tweetable] and overall the number of developers with iOS and Android as primary platform is almost exactly even. This is biased by a large number of Hobbyists and Explorers* who overwhelmingly prefer Android, largely because it costs less to get started and the platform is more open. As such, iOS still leads by a decent margin (39% vs 32%) amongst those full time developers trying to build or grow businesses. However, this is not true everywhere with South America being dominated by mobile web developers and most of Asia ruled by Android. Europe is fairly evenly split between the two platforms. Most countries’ developer populations follow local user preferences with a slight bias towards iOS. A major exception is Russia, where iOS penetration is low but developers have an unusually high preference for the platform – this is not just outsourced development either; good technical education, a low cost of living and access to affluent global markets seems to be a great combination for smaller independent developers too.

What about startups?

Finally, if we’re purely talking about startups (or Gold Seekers in our segmentation) then iOS is clearly preferred to Android in North America. Out of those with iOS or Android as their primary platform, 70% are iOS first versus the 30% starting with Android. By the same metric, Asia has a 66% majority of Android first startups and Europe is split 50/50. Although our data set for this particular segment might not be large enough to be comprehensive, it’s clear that “Android First” developers are far from mythical!

If you work in a startup cluster and don’t agree with our numbers then please leave us a comment.

* Explorers are part time mobile app developers with a different day job – for more information on developer segments and their preferences see our segmentation report.

Categories
Tools

App Industry Picks & Shovels: How to succeed with mobile developer tools

developer tools

In the great app store gold rush of the last 5 years a lot of vendors of virtual picks and shovels have set up shop, hoping to cash in on the boom regardless of which individual developers succeed in a fiercely competitive market. Having surveyed developers on their tool choices and revenues, we can see how popular these third party tools and services are. We can also reveal whether those buying the virtual picks tend to do better than those who opt for the virtual shovels, or whether you really need both developer tools.

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With great opportunity comes great complexity

As the expected level of quality and functionality in mobile apps is increasing, the monetisation strategies are also getting more complex. [tweetable]In order to succeed, most developers need advanced tools to manage quality in a world of fragmentation[/tweetable]. To optimise revenue models beyond the simple paid download, systems to acquire and analyse the behaviour of users are also essential. Most developers turn to third parties to provide some or all of these tools. Many additionally look to third parties to provide some of the functionality, particularly via scalable cloud-hosted services.

Over 85% of developers who completed this section of our survey use at least one third party tool, while just over 45% of developers use tools from at least 3 different categories. There’s clearly significant demand but how does tool adoption correlate to revenue? Looking at only those developers who generate between $1 per month and $5 million per month (i.e. excluding those not trying to make money, not yet making money and the mega-rich – n=1596) we get the following:

More developer tool use, less risk

Looking at only the mean average revenues you could be forgiven for thinking that developers should be avoiding most third party tools, since by far the wealthiest developers are those not using them. However, a look at the median revenues shows the opposite. Some of the largest and most successful developers can afford to build and control their own tools so don’t need third party offerings. [tweetable]The vast majority of developers trying to make it without any third party tooling support generate hardly any revenue at all[/tweetable]. The median number of people involved in development for the organisations not using tools is 1, whilst it is 3.5 (2-5) for all other results. In general the increasing median revenue with use of more tool categories suggests that those who use more tools have lower financial risks. It’s tempting to speculate that there’s some causation here where developers are able to offload some risk by using proven third party solutions. In fact, the major driver is that the tool categories cover such a wide spectrum of apps that the more you use the more likely you are to be doing a lot of contract development – an inherently lower risk revenue model.

It’s not what developer tools you use, it’s how you use them

How use of tools in the various categories correlates with revenues doesn’t produce any great surprises. Those using cross-promotion networks, game development tools and ad networks are at the bottom of the revenue pile. Large game developers and publishers tend to have their own game engines, can cross-promote with their own titles and even run their own ad systems. The [tweetable]smaller, independent developers who rely on third parties for this typically struggle to climb the app store charts[/tweetable]. App store analytics users are next up from the bottom, this may simply reflect the relatively poor revenues of those who rely on app stores. Most other tool use was correlated with fairly average revenues. Notably above average, ranking second overall, is Backend-as-a-Service (BaaS) – where the mean revenues are about 35% higher than average and the median revenues 50% higher. As a result those using a BaaS typically beat average revenues by significantly more than the associated costs.

Using the data from our survey at the beginning of the year, we previously argued that developers who collect lots of analytics and quality data for their apps and act on it are significantly more likely to succeed. Users of crash analytics tools had the highest mean ($26k/person/month) and median ($2.1k/person/month) revenues of any single tool category in the latest survey. Nearly 50% of respondents to this section of the survey now use usage* analytics tools so it’s unsurprising that their mean revenues are almost exactly average ($17.5k/person/month) although noteworthy that their median revenues are 50% above the average ($1.5k vs $1k). Those using both crash and usage analytics tools had similar mean revenue to those just using crash analytics but significantly higher median revenue ($3.5k). The only tool combination to beat this was crash and usage analytics plus beta testing, which had mean revenues of $33k and median revenues of $3.75k. Beta testing tools can also help developers to improve the quality and usability of their apps, as such it’s interesting that those using just crash analytics and beta testing had extremely low mean ($5k) & median ($750) revenues. Possibly this last tool combination typically signifies a developer with a quality problem rather than one proactively seeking quality?

Is selling picks and shovels where the real money is?

There are some massive app developer success stories but our data suggests that the typical app developer (as represented by median revenue) is struggling to break even. It turns out that the developer tools market is similarly competitive. Selling services to developers ranks third in mean revenue per organisation and per person involved amongst all revenue models (behind per device royalties/license fees and subscriptions). Compared to the users of the tools the mean average income at $29k/person/month is slightly higher than for users of any single tool category but the median income is exactly the same as for the tool users.

* This category gets called both “user analytics” and “usage analytics”. The developer tools do both, although if you only use them to get an idea of who your user base are and how often they use the app (user), rather than what they do in the app (usage), you’re probably doing it wrong.

Categories
Business

6 tough questions on app business models and strategies

[VisionMobile’s Andreas Pappas was recently quizzed on app business models, best practices and strategies for developers and entrepreneurs. In this post we’re presenting the most interesting questions and answers from this interview. These are tough questions that all developers and entrepreneurs are faced with in the early stages of their ventures.]

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Q1: I am thinking of developing my own mobile app: What are the main business models I can use to make money and how do I select the right one for my idea?

There are numerous factors to take into account when developing your business model but the two key questions you have to ask are:

  1. What problem am I trying to solve?

  2. How am I solving this problem?

Once you have answered these two questions, you will be in a much better position to develop a business model. A good place to start from is the Business Model Canvas, a simple tool that outlines the key areas that a business model needs to address.

A number of areas within your business model are interdependent. For example, your target market will initially be defined by the problem you are solving. Once you have identified your target market you can start thinking about revenue models, marketing, partnerships, distribution etc.

While it helps to get everything right the first time, it is most likely that you will need to adapt both your product and your business model several times along the way.

From an economics perspective, a large number of successful business models these days are built on two-sided networks and even multi-sided networks. These are usually services that connect businesses to consumers or consumers to consumers, such as, for example AirBnB and eBay type services. These models exhibit powerful network effects if they manage to scale up and allow owners to monetise either one side of the network (e.g. consumers or businesses) or both (e.g. commission-based) depending on the application.

[tweetable]When it comes to making money, there is a variety of revenue models available[/tweetable] and the selection is to some extent dependant on your business model, competition, target market, and exit strategy. There is no one-size-fits-all solution here.

Free services can scale up quickly but monetisation may be problematic. So if your business plan requires scale, think about indirect income sources such as advertising or even VC funding, to get you through the growth phase. Once you’ve achieved scale, an exit is an option you should consider: user acquisition is expensive and larger businesses will frequently opt for acquisitions rather than organic growth.

[tweetable]Advertising may be profitable but requires massive scale and even then, getting it right is tricky[/tweetable]. Advertising is more popular on Android and WP than on iOS, due to the fact that Android users are not as heavy spenders as iOS users.

Obviously app-stores allow developers to monetise their apps directly, via paid downloads or in-app purchases. The latter has become increasingly popular, particularly on iOS and competes favourably against paid-downloads.

Beyond these obvious ones there is a range of options that have to do with the type of app/service that one is providing. For example, apps offering content or services (e.g. news apps or some fitness apps) may utilise a subscription model. This app business model is not easy to pull off though – even popular newspapers are struggling to make money off subscriptions.

 Advertising most popular revenue model

Q2: I am a mobile developer. Which sectors have the most potential in my country?

The good thing about mobile apps is the fact that the market is global and the costs and barriers to reach international markets are very low compared to other, more traditional businesses. So mobile app development should not be seen in the traditional way of “what works in my local market” but instead, from the viewpoint of “what works in the markets that I want/I am well placed to reach”. In short, any sector has potential in your country if your focus is international and it should be international-first.

While this change in mindset is critical, that is not to say that there are no opportunities locally. If one is developing apps that rely on local content or services (e.g. transport services) then highly localised content is required. So it may be easier for local developers to source and access this content, although this is not always the case.

One would think, for example, that local travel/tourism apps would be more successful since they’re optimised for each region. However, the most successful apps in this sector are global because they have scale. [tweetable]For most apps, scale is critical and thinking locally can only get you so far[/tweetable].

Q3: What is more difficult? Coding or marketing the app?

The consensus among developers says marketing. While adopting new languages, frameworks, SDKs and APIs may pose challenges, it is usually a straightforward matter of learning to use new technology. For most developers, marketing has been uncharted territory until the very first app-store appeared. Mobile marketing is quite a different beast to anything that was available before iPhone-era smartphones. Even digital marketing specialists may find the landscape too perplexing since the strategies, practices and even the KPIs are in constant flux. Constant experimentation (in other words trial-and-error) is one of the strategies most frequently used in order to find out what works best in your case.

Q4: What are the best ways to do marketing for my app and acquire users/downloads etc?

😉 See above. The best advice is to try several options and see how they work for your particular case. Before you pay for any advertising or promotion network, try some textbook marketing methods that are still of great value:

#1 Cross-promotion

If you have several apps, make sure you promote your other apps through them. Of course this must be done in a way that will not annoy your users. If you can promote your app through other apps, that’s also a good idea.

#2 Become part of an ecosystem/platform

Make your app work with other apps if this is an option. For example, if you’ve developed a fitness app that could work with Withings or Runkeeper, why not make it work with these and gain more visibility through their own ecosystem?

#3 Do some PR

Let people know about your app. Send emails or press releases to popular websites, newspapers and anyone with a sizeable reach. Most of them may not respond but it’s definitely worth a try and there are several success stories that started this way.

After you’ve done the above, there are plenty of options to try, depending on your marketing budget. If you have determined how valuable each customer is to you, then you can hire a mobile marketing expert to handle all your marketing activities and pay them per customer acquired.

Q5: What are the most common mistakes that mobile app developers do and how can I avoid them?

#1 Failing to see app development as a business

[tweetable]The best technology solution is not good enough without the right business models and execution[/tweetable]. This is one of the best known principles in the area of technology strategy. Developers that lack business experience often fail on the commercial side of the business.

#2 Failing to prepare for success

The nature, scale and pace of the app economy is such that in a matter of days your user based may grow from tens to tens of thousand users. Will your back-end cope? Will you be able to pay for third-party API calls utilised in your app? If not, what may have been initially a great service, will fail due to poor customer experience or you may run out of money. A proper business case should anticipate success.

#3 Failing to pivot/adapt

A common advice in the startup world is “pivot till you die”. If your idea is not working try applying it on a different market, adapt it to the current market, flip it on its head or scrap it altogether and go for something else.

#4 Failing to know and listen to your users

In a market where consumer switching costs are so low and a user can easily replace your app with the competitor’s app, user experience and customer support are critical success factors. Your app will be deleted if it crashes repeatedly, if it is poorly designed, or does not deliver what it says on the tin. Test your app, test it again, use crash-reporting and user-analytics services and keep it up to date, implementing new features and listening to user feedback.

Q6: Is it better to try to innovate with a never-seen app, or is it better to be a follower?

Neither is easy and both can work. The advantage of being a follower is that you learn from others’ mistakes and failures. You may for example see what is not so good or what is missing from an app and fill the gap, or extend it into another market. The downside is that by the time you do it, others will probably be trying to do it too, so there will be more competition. You don’t just need a better app, you also need better execution, i.e. a better business model and marketing, in order to topple the leader.

On the other hand, a new, innovative idea can take you a long way before the competition catches up (although never at a safe distance) but it is more difficult to create a niche and then expand it.

[tweetable]While most developers develop apps they want to use themselves, this should not be the only criterion for developing your ideas[/tweetable]. At the very least, discussing with users, friends or researching the market can get you a long way.

Those developers that extend tried and tested ideas into new markets are usually more successful. That doesn’t mean that you can just copy an app; you have to adapt the business model to the new market at the very least. In the app economy innovation is not limited to technology but extends to business models too.

Successful developers grow by extending to new verticals

Comments? More advice? Feel free to start the conversation.

Andreas Pappas

Follow me on twitter @PappasAndreas

Categories
Business

App monetisation: Games vs. Enterprise and Business Apps

The mobile apps business is maturing and while most of the media attention is still focussed on the latest app store success stories, developers are finding lots of better ways to improve app monetisation. Considering all revenue sources, which categories of application are generating the most money and what’s the competition like on each platform?

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App Stores not the answer?

In our last developer economics survey we asked developers to give us a breakdown of their revenue from different sources. Of the 1,695 developers earning between $1/month and $5 million/month who reported their revenue breakdown to us, 55% generated some of their income from app stores. There is a negative correlation between the fraction of revenue an organisation earns from app stores and the total revenue they earn per person involved in app development. That is, the more you rely on app stores for revenue, the less you are likely to make any. By excluding those with revenues above $5 million/month, we’re ignoring the very top of the store charts where the bulk of app store revenue is made. However, this is just a handful of developers, who would otherwise have an extremely disproportionate effect on the average. It’s also worth noting that [tweetable]there are limited costs involved in app store publishing but it produces the lowest average revenues of all sources[/tweetable] in our survey – it’s clearly not the easiest way to build a profitable app business.

Is there gold anywhere but games?

With games accounting for around 75-80% of all app store revenues it’s possibly not surprising that they were the most popular category of app amongst the developers in our survey. Given the chart above it shouldn’t be surprising that they are far from the most profitable (~$2,500/person/month more than the lowest mean income and the lowest overall median income). So [tweetable]which were the most profitable app categories? Business Productivity and Enterprise apps[/tweetable]. However, there are some significant differences between platforms so it’s worth playing with the interactive chart below to spot any opportunities that might be of interest.

[tweetable]Median developer revenues are higher on iOS than Android across all categories[/tweetable], but in some categories mean revenues are higher on Android. This shows that there are some developers managing to exploit the much larger market on Android successfully but most developers are still financially better off on iOS, including revenues from outside the app stores. Where average revenues across all platforms were higher than either iOS or Android, web developers were usually making the most revenue in that category.

The averages in the charts above still hide a lot of potentially interesting detail on where the best opportunities in the apps market are. Those wanting a more complete analysis should look at our App Economy Forecasts report.