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The 3 key Apple Watch features that nobody talks about. Yet.

[If Apple wants to create a new, large product category out of smart watches, they need to create mass-market demand for their new product. What are the 3 most important features that will define the future of the Apple Watch? The ones that enable developers to innovate on top of these devices and create demand for smart watches.]

apple-watch-09

“We believe this product will redefine what people expect from its category. … It is the next chapter in Apple’s story.” With these words, Tim Cook made it very clear that the Apple Watch is more than just an excellent product. As with the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad before it, the Apple Watch aims to shape the future of wearables and create a whole new market reality.

As it stands, the Apple Watch v1 is a nicely designed timepiece, an engineering wonder, but competition will be fierce. Since fashion is about self-expression, by definition, there will be no single winner.

If Apple wants to create something bigger than fashion accessories, the Watch needs to be a functional tool. If it’s a tool, [tweetable]Apple must answer a fundamental question: what is a smart watch for?[/tweetable]

https://twitter.com/brianshall/status/509405381857013760
https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/509431691207659520

Will notifications become the killer app for smart watches? Unlikely. Not only is it unclear that we really want more interruptions, but it’s a bit of a dead-end for innovation. There can only be so many improvements in notifications, and only so many companies making those improvements.

If Apple wants to create a new, large product category out of smart watches, they need to become something much more that a timepiece with notifications and sensors. Something that allows people to do things that were not possible before. How Apple can do this? By following the same path that worked so well for iPhone and iPad: Tap into the limitless innovation power of co-creators to discover new use cases and possibilities we cannot imagine today.

The most important features of the Apple Watch going forward are the ones that enable developers to innovate on top of these devices and create demand for Apple’s smart watches. What are these features?

WatchKit

WatchKit

The straightforward way to expand the functionality of the watch is the WatchKit SDK, which allows developers to create “watch apps”. Other smart watch players like Android Wear, Pebble and Razer have made similar capabilities for developers. Developers are already showing strong interest in smartwatches. For example, the developer program of Pebble boasts 20,000+ developers and thousands of apps,.

HealthKit

The Apple Watch has a strong emphasis on embedded sensors for fitness and wellness. On the launch event, the company dedicated an entire section on it. Tim Cook: “This is a very important area for me and a very important area for Apple.”

But a few sensors and apps do not make a platform. The real potential lies in the HealthKit SDK that Apple launched at its WWDC event earlier this year. While its not technically a feature of the watch itself, it is this SDK that can take the device’s functionality and expand it in a whole new way to monitor activity and other wellness data . Could it be that the category that Apple wants to redefine is not the watch, but wellness and healthcare (in the broadest sense of the word)?

Certainly several other companies seem to go after that opportunity. Among them Google (Google Fit), Validic, Samsung (SAMI), Human API and most recently Jawbone (Jawbone UP API).

Identity

Like the Nymi wristband, the Apple Watch has all the technology in it to identify you personally. Apple has already demonstrated how digital identity combined with the Apple Watch can be used to make payments or even open hotel doors. (The clever integration with the new Apple Pay can drive adoption for both.) However, the possibilities are much broader. Biometric identification can be the end of not only passwords, but other kinds of ID as well. Another product category for Apple to redefine and absorb into its iOS universe?

Digital identity is a key control point for many digital leaders, including the likes of Google, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Salesforce. They are all actively working to hold your identity information and build your online persona on their platform. For Apple, the importance of identity is also evident in their deepening integration between devices and in their introduction of fingerprint sensors in all new phones.

Users first

What is a smart watch useful for? Beyond fashion and self-expression, a new kind of health monitoring and identity are prime candidates for the title of killer use case. Apple is going at it with their proven recipe for launching digital ecosystems: users-first. Apple starts by releasing a well-designed device for hardcore fans with a lot of value built in by default. Once there is a critical mass of users, Apple connects them with developers, who create real mass-market demand for the product.

It will take the ingenuity of a community of developers to explore all the possibilities and create a category killer, and Apple knows it very well.

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Business

Is the Indie App Opportunity Gone?

The app stores created an opportunity for any developer to build their own products and reach a global audience with them. For some developers this offered the promise of an independent app business, giving them creative control of their work and hopefully a comfortable income. Recently there have been lots of posts (great summary list here) from current and former independent app developers about the state of the market and how much harder it is to earn a living from your own apps. If it’s tough for established indie developers then is it still possible to get started? We’ll look at how the market has changed and share some data on the revenues of over 500 solopreneurs and small indie developers versus their bigger rivals.

indie_game

The indie developer gold rush

[tweetable]A key advantage of small indie app developers is their agility[/tweetable]. They can shift their strategy to take advantage of new opportunities incredibly quickly. The success story that may have started the iOS app gold rush was built before there was an official SDK or App Store. Steve Demeter was working on ATM software for a bank and built the game Trism in his spare time, initially releasing it for free to the jailbreak community. When the App Store launched it was initially a $5 paid download that earned $250,000 in profits in the first two months. Demeter quit his day job to become one of the first full-time iOS indie app developers. Trism was reduced to $3 to stay competitive but went on to sell around 3 million copies. Four months of evenings and weekends, just a few weeks equivalent in full time development, earned a life-changing amount of money.

It’s the overnight success stories like these that continue to drive lottery-like behaviour from some developers. Playing for the outside chance of winning big. Even the media coverage at the time noted the increasing competition with more than 1500 iPhone games available in the App Store! Today’s developers would love so few apps to compete against; there are now hundreds of times as many.

Raising the bar

By 2011 life-changing solo developer success on the app store looked rather different. A $5 app created in a matter of weeks wouldn’t stand a chance. Andreas Illiger is a gifted musician, artist and coder. His Tiny Wings took 7 months of full time effort to create and sold for just $0.99. The increased scale of the platform meant he was able to sell more than 10 million copies. In 2014 it’s debatable whether a solo developer will ever repeat the feat. Monument Valley looks like the modern benchmark for a chart topping paid game title but developer UsTwo primarily serves clients in three countries and has over 100 staff in the London studio that created the game. Sirvo’s Threes! is a better comparison yet it was created by three people over a 14-month period (not full time). Threes! was almost immediately copied with numerous free alternatives to the $1.99 original springing up. Whilst Tiny Wings enjoyed a year as a top 10 game and another two inside the top 50, Threes! is already in danger of heading out of the top 100. [tweetable]There’s just so much free-to-play competition[/tweetable]. Making a more complex game to differentiate from the crowd is just beyond the scope of most small independent developers.

Not just games

Those examples have focussed on games and it’s tempting to think non-game apps might be a different story. However, consider that our data shows only 33% of developers are making games. Those developers collectively earn over 80% of store revenues across iOS and Android. So [tweetable]67% of developers are competing for less than 20% of store revenues[/tweetable].

Lets take a look at what Hunters (our name for developers that are aiming for direct revenues from their apps) can expect to earn at different company sizes.

As you can see, iOS is still a much healthier place for an indie app developer to be than Android but unless your cost of living is very low then the chances of making a comfortable living aren’t great. The bigger developers are taking over the top charts. [tweetable]If you’re outside the top app charts then it’s incredibly hard to get noticed[/tweetable]. Some of the successful smaller developers in our survey already have established apps with a strong history of downloads and ratings that keeps them high in the search results. If you’re just starting out, is it still possible to join them?

Find the right sized niche

The key difference with non-game apps is that they don’t all compete for the same attention. If your indie developer dream is to build the app you really want to use and be richly rewarded for it, you’d better have a fairly unusual problem that you want solved. Jared Sinclair’s Unread is the cautionary tale for those wanting to build for other technology lovers like themselves. An RSS reader (or client for any popular internet activity), however beautifully executed, has to compete with a vast array of free alternatives. Many of those other apps will have been built by hobbyists with no need to make any revenue at all. Anyone wanting to succeed as an indie developer today needs to think like a small business. Trying to compete with hobbyists is as futile as trying to compete with Google.

The right sized niche for an independent app is one that’s small enough not to be interesting to much bigger competitors but big enough to earn a living. Even winning the niche is not going to support a big team. The best niches will need specialist knowledge or intellectual property that make them both unattractive to hobbyists and defensible. Ben Thompson provides a great case study of Pleco, a Chinese dictionary app with some high-value in-app purchases. This example has two key advantages worth replicating: unique licensed content and a natural channel to market outside of the app stores.

What about getting rich?

If that sounds more like hard work than the indie developer dream of becoming an overnight app millionaire, it is. It’s also many, many times more likely to succeed. [tweetable]If you want to be an app millionaire then build contract apps for businesses and grow a team[/tweetable]. Then build some products for enterprise customers in niches that won’t attract immediate competition from much better funded rivals. Or get some venture capital and think really big! If you prefer the dream of being a millionaire, stick to building apps in your spare time. Better yet, buy a lottery ticket, it’s much less effort for about the same odds.

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Business

The European App Economy 2014: Europe is losing ground to Asia

We have just published a research note with an update to last year’s an European App Economy report. The good news is that Europe’s app economy still accounts for 19% of global revenues and is growing strongly at a 12% annual rate. The bad news is that the rest of the world, particularly Asia, is growing much faster. The global app economy is growing at 27% annually and the share of revenues captured by developers in the EU28 is falling. We estimate that around 1 million European jobs have been created by the app economy so far. If policymakers want to see this job creation continue then there’s a lot more they could do to support developers attempting to create businesses.

European-App-Economy-2014_final

A $16.5 billion market

In our App Economy Forecasts 2013-2016 report we estimated that apps and app related products and services would generate $86 billion in revenues globally in 2014. The 19% share of this generated by European developers will contribute $16.5 billion to EU28 GDP this year. This is many times more revenue than is generated directly in the app stores. However, the EU is home to the top 2 app store earners globally in Supercell (Finland) and King (UK) – masters of the Free-to-Play games market. At the same time, European policymakers are some of the most vocal in attempts to enhance consumer protection with respect to the Free-to-Play model. So far there is only strong encouragement to reform practices around cost transparency but this could (justifiably) lead to regulation if insufficient voluntary action is taken. Significant changes in this area would undoubtedly impact the revenues of Europe’s most high profile app market success stories.

1 million jobs

We estimate that the number of direct European app economy jobs is up 26% from 2013 to 667,000, this breaks down as 406,000 professional developers and 261,000 non-technical roles in app-related business. Using a conservative multiplier we also estimate another 333,000 jobs have been created indirectly by the app economy in the EU28 for a total of 1 million jobs. A large fraction of these jobs are in software services companies taking the low risk route to profitability building apps on a contract basis. Contract software development is the most popular revenue model in Europe, favoured by 31% of developers. This may be partially due to the relative lack of seed capital for startup ventures in the region along with a relatively high cost of living versus most global competitors, making bootstrapping products more difficult.

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Slower growth

Although the European app economy is growing at less than half the global rate, some loss of share was unavoidable. Europe was very quick to reach high levels of smartphone penetration and most of the device sales growth is in developing markets. A significant fraction of demand for apps will always be filled by local developers with better market knowledge. As smartphone penetration increases in developing countries their local app economies are growing rapidly. European developers are well placed to export to English-speaking markets and South America but it’s not so easy for them to succeed in Asia. It’s likely that developers based in the EU will need specialist support or local partners to maximise app export opportunities in some of the fastest growing markets.

The enterprise opportunity

As smartphones reach saturation, businesses will play an increasing role in the growth of the app economy in Europe. In our Business and Productivity Apps report we forecast that this sector would experience rapid growth, reaching $58 billion globally by 2016. We have identified 5 areas where app developers and startups can add value in the business & enterprise app sector:

  • Vertical market specialisation
  • Productivity/BYO apps
  • Mobile SaaS
  • Bespoke enterprise apps
  • Mobile application and device management

While European developers are well placed to win bespoke enterprise app development business, they may struggle to compete with better funded rivals from other regions for the larger opportunities. Starting a technology business has never required less capital but scaling an enterprise software business is incredibly expensive to do quickly. The biggest mobile SaaS, application management and vertical market opportunities are likely to be venture capital fuelled land grabs. To ensure that Europe makes maximum gains from the future growth of the app economy, policymakers need to do all they can to keep app entrepreneurs from relocating to Silicon Valley in order to access the expertise and capital they need to compete.

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Business Platforms Tools

State of the Developer Nation: The App Economy Consolidates Before the Next Gold Rush

app economy

Our 7th Developer Economics survey broke all records again, reaching more than 10,000 app developers from 137 different countries. The full report with the survey findings has just been published and is available for free download!

The view of the app economy that they collectively provide is one of consolidation. Developers are focusing their attention on fewer platforms and app revenues are becoming increasingly concentrated amongst the top publishers. Consolidation in the developers tools sector may also be partly responsible for the decline we see in tools usage. This is also reflected by the platforms, with BlackBerry moving their focus away from consumer smartphones and Microsoft killing their recently acquired Asha and Nokia X platforms to double down on Windows Phone. Fortunately there are several indicators that the next gold rush is just getting started.

Platform Wars in the App Economy

On a global level the platform wars are ending with iOS claiming the majority of the high-end device market and Android winning almost everywhere else. This results in [tweetable]Android leading in developer mindshare at 70% with iOS a clear second with 51% of developers targeting the platform[/tweetable]. However, we’ve been tracking this metric since 2010 and there is a new pattern. [tweetable]Windows Phone was the only platform to gain developer mindshare, rising steadily to 28%[/tweetable], despite failing to gain device market share. Although Android and iOS lost developer mindshare, this was not fewer developers prioritising either platform, rather more developers are now choosing sides. The average number of platforms a developer targets has fallen from 2.9 to 2.2 over the last 12 months, with more than 40% only targeting a single platform.

DE2014Q3_Mindshare

BlackBerry 10 is rapidly leaking developer mindshare, down to 11%, having failed to gain traction with consumers. Meanwhile, it’s now becoming increasingly clear that [tweetable]the future of HTML5 lies beyond the browser[/tweetable]. Although HTML5 is used by 42% of developers as a technology for app development, only 15% still target mobile browsers as a distribution platform.

A surprisingly high 47% of iOS developers and 42% of Android developers are using something other than the native language on their platforms. While hybrid apps are the most popular non-native option for building Android and iOS apps, they’re only used by 13% of developers. Hybrid apps are HTML5 apps with a native wrapper, typically created by tools such as Cordova.

DE2014Q3_NativeMyths

App Revenues

The majority of app businesses are not sustainable at current revenue levels. [tweetable]50% of iOS developers and 64% of Android developers are below the “app poverty line” of $500 per app per month[/tweetable]. 24% of developers interested in making money earn nothing at all. A further 23% make less than $100 per app per month. The overall app economy, including all revenue sources not just the app stores, is still growing but the revenues are highly concentrated. At the top end of the revenue scale there are just 1.6% of developers with apps earning more than $500k per month, collectively they earn multiples of the other 98.4% combined.

DE2014Q3_iOS_vs_Android_Revenues

State of the Game Developer Nation

Games dominate app store revenues, yet most games developers struggle. [tweetable]33% of developers make games but 57% of those games make less than $500 per month[/tweetable]. Experience breeds success in the games market. The more games a developer has shipped the more likely they are to be financially successful. However, 70% of games developers have shipped less than 4 titles.

Games is a multi-platform world with the average games developer targeting 3 platforms versus 1.75 platforms for non-games developers. Multi-platform games benefit from cross-platform game development tools with Unity by far the most popular, used by 47% of developers. The next paid tool, Adobe Air, comes a distant second at 15%. Apple and Google’s latest graphics technologies launch a battle for the richest gaming experiences. Third party game development tools like Unity and the Unreal Engine will be key to developers exploiting these capabilities.

DE2014Q3_Game_Dev_Tools

Tools of the App Developer Trade

Third-party tools are a critical part of successful app businesses. There’s a strong correlation between tool use and revenues, the more tools a developer uses, the more money they make. We successfully predicted the rise of the Mega-SDK, where consolidation amongst tools companies allows developers to integrate multiple tool categories from a single vendor. Despite this, tool use is declining, partly due to the rapid influx of new mobile developers. These new developers are typically not aware of the tools that are available and thus reduce the average usage levels. 26% of developers that are interested in making money don’t use any third party tools, up from 14% just 12 months ago.

DE2014Q3_Tool_Popularity

The most popular category of tool is Ad Networks, with 30% of developers using them. However, this is one of the few tool categories that is not associated with higher than average revenues. More experienced and successful developers show a preference for Cloud Computing platforms, such as Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure, with 40% of those with 6+ years experience in mobile apps adopting them.

Enterprise Apps – The Next Gold Rush

[tweetable]Enterprise apps are already the safest bet in the app economy and they’re only just getting started[/tweetable]. 67% of mobile app developers primarily target consumers and 11% target professionals directly. The 16% of developers who target enterprises are twice as likely to be earning over $5k per app per month and almost 3 times as likely to earn more than $25k per app per month.

DE2014Q3_Enterprise_vs_Consumer

Penetration of enterprises with mobile devices and solutions is already broad but not yet deep. Currently iOS appears to be winning the battle for enterprise adoption and revenues. Yet many developers are focusing on the wrong platform with 10% more enterprise developers targeting Android than iOS. Although enterprise apps have been a historical strength for them, Microsoft and BlackBerry are seeing very weak adoption for their new platforms amongst enterprise developers due to lack of demand from enterprises.

This battle is in the very early stages. Microsoft is re-focussing on their core competence in productivity software while Apple and Google move rapidly to embrace enterprises. Google’s integration of Samsung’s Knox platform into the Android platform is a major step forward. Meanwhile Apple’s new partnership with IBM gives them a strong proposition in all the major vertical markets. These moves will undoubtedly drive greater adoption of mobile technology in enterprises and create countless opportunities for developers to help re-think the way we work.

For more information, download the full Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation report and check out the war between the European and the Asian app economy.

 

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Business

How much does it cost to create a successful app?

The app stores contain a range of apps from hobbyist creations built for fun to the carefully crafted output of venture backed startups and mega-corporations that have had millions of dollars spent on their development.

05 App Profit & Loss 2014

Even though the market is maturing and exceptionally well-funded developers have taken over the store charts, the occasional small independently developed app that goes viral can still break through and achieve a decent level of success. The question is, how likely is a small budget developer to succeed? What platforms give them the best chance of success? Where should the budget be spent? With all the competition out there, how much does a bigger budget improve your chances of turning a profit?

What are the odds?

In order to look at how budget can impact profitability it’s worth calibrating by the average chances of making a profit on each platform.

The figures in this chart are probably more positive than most industry observers would expect. Looking at the data it seems likely that many solo developers have valued their time at zero when reporting costs. For hobbyists and explorers, working in their spare time this might make rational sense. They don’t expect to be paid for the time anyway and their small app profits more than cover their other development costs. This is reflected in the slightly lower level of Android developers losing money versus iOS (there are far more hobbyists on Android than iOS).

Leading platforms

On the most popular platforms – iOS, Android and HTML5 – there’s a general correlation between spending more on an app and making more revenue. However, not all spending produces equal results. Spending more on development only slightly increases the chances of making a profit, while increased spending on design and marketing are strongly correlated with higher probability of making significant profits. Higher spending on customer service is almost always associated with greater profit probability but here the causation is almost certainly in the other direction; successful apps incur greater customer service costs because they have a lot of customers! These platforms show very similar patterns but they aren’t identical. The biggest difference between them is that spending more on design for HTML5 apps seems to produce much less of a boost to profit probability than for either of the leading native app platforms.

The second tier

BlackBerry 10 and Windows Phone show similar patterns of spending versus profit probability that are very different from the leading platforms. For small amounts of spending, there are similar patterns to the leading platforms. More investment, greater chance of a profit, with better returns from design and marketing spend. However, before reaching a level that would sustain a full-time designer or developer, the trend reverses; investing large amounts in any aspect of apps for these platforms reduces the probability of a profit and increases the chances of making a loss. This suggests that these platforms have not yet reached sufficient scale in terms of app revenues to sustain many highly complex or polished apps.

Opportunities everywhere

On the leading platforms, developers with budgets in the multiple thousands of dollars a month have roughly twice the chance of turning a profit on their apps as those spending minimal amounts. Even at lower spending levels, the probability of breaking even or better is reasonably high across all platforms, particularly for those investing in design and marketing. While it’s clear that only some of the platforms discussed above are likely to support scalable app businesses at the moment, there are plenty of opportunities to build profitable apps on any these top 5 platforms.

Want to know more?

I’ve only scratched the surface of our data here. What scale of profit or loss can be expected on different platforms with different levels of investment? Are there optimal investment levels to maximize the chances of success? Which app categories are most likely to product a profit. What do successful app development companies look like at different sizes? All this and more is covered in our App Economy report.

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Business

Top revenue models by screen

Screens are everywhere. We’re rapidly being surrounded by bits of glass with some app or other running behind them. Developers have an ever increasing choice of screens to target. There’s a clear and increasing trend towards greater use of mobile screens. However, where is the money? Which screens are users most likely to pay for apps and content for? Are different revenue models better suited to particular screen types?

Revenue_Models_FINAL

Mainstream screens

Our developer surveys are only for developers who target mobile devices. However, the developers don’t exclusively target such devices and some don’t even consider them their primary target. The only screen types considered a primary target for large numbers of developers are smartphones, tablets and PCs; all other screen types are relatively small niches. There is some interesting variation in the success of different revenue models by screen type. However, developers earning very high revenues (>$100k per app per month) are fairly evenly spread across revenue models and so they significantly distort averages towards less popular revenue models. It turns out that nearly all of these developers actually use several revenue models simultaneously (far more than the average developer) and we don’t have the data to split out which ones are actually bringing in the bulk of the revenue. Excluding these high earners from our analysis we see the spread of revenues across screens and models in the chart below.

Where’s the revenue?

The most obvious pattern is that [tweetable]revenues for developers who primarily target PCs are generally higher than for those who target smartphones[/tweetable], which in turn are higher than those for tablets. Now, remembering that these PC developers also target mobile platforms, we are most likely looking at more mature businesses and almost certainly more developers targeting enterprises. Affiliate or CPI (cost per install) scheme revenue stands out for PC developers in particular. Affiliate marketing is a fairly big and mature business on the desktop web but CPI schemes for mobile app developers are a relative new and high growth business. Currently, anyone who can reach mobile app users and provide paid installs below the expected lifetime value of an average user is seeing significant demand. With development costs essentially fixed and the marginal cost of serving a new user extremely close to zero, successful consumer focussed mobile apps are willing to pay handsomely for installs.

The notable exceptions amongst tablet first developers are those selling subscriptions; [tweetable]median revenues for tablet subscription apps are by far the highest across all screens and revenue models[/tweetable]. It’s easy to speculate, with tablets being such excellent media consumption devices, that these subscriptions are mostly for media content (magazine, news and video) apps. Obviously there are high costs associated with producing the content, so those high revenues don’t necessarily translate to high profits. Additionally, the higher than average median revenues for developer services on tablets may be related, since tools and platforms for content publishers on tablets are fairly popular.

The e-Commerce mystery

On the desktop web e-Commerce is a giant industry and yet we see smartphones ahead of tablets, with both quite a long way ahead of PCs for e-Commerce revenues. All the e-Commerce spending data says the opposite, with PC spending still ahead of tablet spending and smartphone spending the lowest. Perhaps the scale advantages in online retail mean that there aren’t many businesses able to compete in sub-$100k / month revenue filter we’ve applied here and there are just some niche mobile first e-Commerce solutions starting on smartphones. Indeed our top end revenue band of $500k+ in the survey is probably not large enough to reflect successful e-Commerce businesses. Possibly our survey just hasn’t attracted a representative cross-section of e-Commerce developers.

Continuous clients

Currently PC-first developers are still making the highest revenues for most types of business. Indeed, even the simple paid download model that seems to be almost dying on mobile platforms is looking fairly healthy on PCs. Tablet-first software developers aren’t yet seeing fantastic results despite the growing penetration of the iPad in enterprises and educational institutions. The giant installed base of smartphones does not yet offset the low revenues per user from what are mostly consumer apps. Mobile developers need to focus more on which users are willing to pay for software and what they’re willing to pay for in order to grow revenues. [tweetable]Mobile-first may be an excellent design philosophy but it shouldn’t also imply mobile-only[/tweetable]. Subscription-based businesses are working very well across all screens. Most developers offering subscriptions provide clients for all of the screens their customers use to access their content or service. It seems increasingly likely that the future, regardless of revenue model, will reward those who offer services that work seamlessly across all the screens a person owns, rather than focussing on one over others.

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Business

7 things you need to know before developing a car app

Are you bored with the same old smartphone apps? Why not try developing for cars?

Automotive-report_illustration_web

Which tools do you use to develop apps? Have your say in our Developer Economics survey and you could win awesome new gear.

Car makers have started a major offensive to get more apps in their vehicles and open up to outside developers. Their efforts have sparked an interest in the developer community. “A year ago there was very little interest from mobile developers because the automotive market was perceived as being too insignificant,” says Linda Daichendt, Executive Director of the Mobile Technology Association of Michigan, a trade organisation for the mobile/wireless industry located in the heart of automotive country: Detroit. “In late 2013 there was a tremendous surge in vehicle manufacturer outreach to mobile developers with extensive marketing programs. Now there is a much higher level of interest from developers in trying to understand the needs of the automotive companies and how they can profit from working with this market segment. As a result, 2014 is seeing a large number of Connected Vehicle conferences and training programs that are very well attended by the mobile developer community.”

According to Linda, education will be the key to unlock developer engagement and creativity. We thought we’d put in our own 2 cents with our latest report: “Apps for connected cars? Your mileage may vary””. In the free report we describe the state of automotive developer programs in 2014. Here are already 7 things you ought to know before getting into car apps. Many more details inside!

  1. [tweetable]There are 4 ways to develop a car app[/tweetable]. If you want to build an in-vehicle infotainment app, you can run it either on the car’s head unit (the dashboard) or run your app on a mobile device (smartphone or tablet) that is linked with the car. In the latter case, your app’s UI can be mirrored on the dashboard screen using APIs like Mirrorlink or CarPlay. If you want to make an app (in the car, in the cloud or on any device) that uses data from the car, you can use a car maker’s vehicle data API or access the On-Board Diagnostics port (OBD-II) using a bluetooth dongle.VisionMobile-Connected_Car_Apps-02-4_ways_to_develop
  2. [tweetable]There are 3 routes to market for car apps. Two of them are painful. The third is very early stage.[/tweetable]
    • Partner with car makers to get the app pre-installed in the vehicle or featured on a car maker app store. This process takes 2-6 months in the best case. You’ll have to audition with car makers to be allowed to distribute your app, and you’ll be at their mercy for much of the UI design.
    • Distribute apps on major mobile app stores (iOS, Google Play). Still, the approval of car makers is needed to distribute apps using their APIs. You’ll need to sign a distribution contract with the car maker in most cases.
    • Distribute apps on major mobile app stores (iOS, Google Play) while using an OBD-II dongle to get vehicle data. In this case, you need to convince your user to buy and install a hardware dongle. Platforms like Dash and Carvoyant that allow you to access data from an installed base of dongles have only recently launched, and don’t have a large user base yet (in the tens of thousands at most).
      VisionMobile-Connected_Car_Apps-07-3_routes_to_market
  3. [tweetable]The addressable market for car apps is in the lower millions of app installs[/tweetable]. If you were to produce a car app today and push it in the market with all your might, you can expect at most a few million installs across all platforms. It will probably take you several years to get there. Consider the example of Pandora, one of the most popular car apps around. It took them 3 years and over 30 partnership agreements to reach 4 million unique users. Nokia HERE, the navigation platform, claims to be behind 4 out 5 in-car navigation systems. They have sold 10 million licenses in 2013. Compare this to a potential of hundred of millions of installs on iOS or Android for the top apps. (Apps like Gmail or Facebook will probably count billions of installs when adding up all the platforms.)
  4. [tweetable]…but you’ll face much less competition in car apps than on the mobile app stores[/tweetable]. In our Developer Economics report series, we talk about millions of individual mobile app developers on each major platform. There are hundreds of thousands of app publishers on an organisational level. Based on data from analytics firm Priori, we estimate that each distinct app sub-category or use case has on average 1,500 apps competing for the user’s attention.
    In contrast, VisionMobile currently estimates the amount of car app developers at around the ten thousand mark, based on reported figures from car makers that have developer programs. It is still possible to “ride the wave”, i.e. to have an early-mover advantage on car apps just like it existed on smartphones in 2008 or tablets in 2010.
  5. [tweetable]Revenue opportunities for car apps are fuzzy and unproven at best.[/tweetable] Most car makers and car app platform players have not thought through the revenue model question. A common answer is: “the developer can use whatever revenue model he chooses or he is already using”. As we know from mobile apps, it’s not that simple. If you’re relying on an App Store based app for revenue generation, then paid downloads are all but dead in terms of revenue (except navigation apps perhaps), display advertising seems like a no-go and an in-app purchase during normal use seems pretty unlikely, or at least high-friction.
  6. [tweetable]You must design an app that can be operated at 65 mph / 100 km/h without crashing (not your app! your user!).[/tweetable] Safety concerns around driver distraction are absolutely paramount for the car makers you’ll be working with. This is the single biggest difference between car apps and the mobile apps you’re already familiar with. The feeling among car makers is that developers tend to underestimate the importance of new UI paradigms quite a lot – and you’ll be thoroughly scrutinized on it. Expect a learning curve.
    This of course doesn’t apply for car apps that are not used while driving or don’t require user interaction – by no means a niche area! Think insurance, fleet management, car sharing, maintenance and reselling: the list is endless.
  7. [tweetable]Things are moving fast. Your life is about to get easier as platform plays similar to iOS and Android are set in motion[/tweetable]. The introduction of Apple’s CarPlay and Google’s Open Automotive Alliance (and to a lesser extent Windows in the Car) seems to herald a tipping point in the industry. Here are two players that have a deep expertise in solving fragmentation, in building developer communities and in enabling developers to add value. There is now a realistic and acute possibility that these new entrants will sweep away the existing car app platforms with a dominant, over-the-top solution, just as they did in the smartphone world. You can find an overview of all the important platform contenders in our report.

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Business

Emerging developer opportunities in Enterprise & Productivity apps

Andreas Pappas shares our latest findings, from our Business & Productivity Apps report which takes a look at developer opportunities created by emerging trends in enterprise mobility (such as bring-your-own policies and mobile SaaS) and professional and vertical app markets (e.g. healthcare apps). This market was worth $28 billion in 2013 and is set to grow to $58 billion by 2016.

Enterprize_developers_illustration_HD

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[tweetable]Apps are changing the way people communicate, work and play[/tweetable]. App development has grown into a huge industry, that we estimate to be worth $67 billion in 2013. We expect the app economy to more than double in size by 2016.

Most of the publicity and media spotlights currently fall on superstar consumer apps like Angry Birds or Candy Crush Saga and communication apps like WhatsApp. These success stories have certainly highlighted the massive scale and revenue potential of mobile apps, reaching from zero to tens of millions of users in record-breaking time.

At the same time, a growing audience of prosumer and business users depend on Box, Evernote and Trello to help them be more productive in their work. Enterprises are now allowing employees to use the apps they love at work, inside the corporate Intranet. Organisations of all shapes and sizes are integrating mobile apps within their business processes. This mobilisation creates a demand for off-the-shelf or custom mobile apps and services, translating into new and bigger opportunities for mobile app developers.

Most app developers currently target consumer app markets (think games and lifestyle apps) but they could be missing out on opportunities in the enterprise (aka business & productivity) market. Our research indicates that the business & productivity app market, is not only growing at approximately the same rate as the consumer app market but is also less congested, and offers better revenue potential, for more developers. Read the report to find out more.

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Consumer vs. Enterprise & Productivity apps: how do revenues compare

App publishers that target business and productivity markets have a much better chance of generating sustainable revenue than those targeting consumer markets, with just 32% of them below the “app poverty line” ($500 per app per month) compared to just under half of consumer-focused publishers (48%). At the same time, [tweetable]publishers that target businesses or professional users have a much higher chance to generate very high-revenues[/tweetable]: 16% of those targeting the business & productivity market generate revenues exceeding $500,000 per app per month, compared to just 6% among consumer-focused publishers.

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While consumer apps and particularly games (e.g. Angry Birds, Candy Crush Saga) can generate extraordinary revenues, it is quite clear that this is not the case for the vast majority of developers that target consumer markets. Business & Productivity apps allow developers to build a sustainable business around more solid business models with recurring revenues from a loyal customer base.

As bring-your-own policies and enterprise app stores become increasingly popular among businesses, the market and the opportunity for developers is likely is set to expand in the next three years.

Which platform should you prioritise if you build business and productivity apps?

While Android is dominating the consumer market in terms of market share, iOS maintains a healthy lead among professional and business users. Data provided by enterprise cloud content platform Box, indicates that 94% of their tablet users are on iPads, while enterprise mobility management services provider Good Technology indicates that 54% of enterprise smartphone activations came through iPhone devices in Q4 2013. It is clear that Apple has an edge in the business device market and this is also reflected in revenues generated via iDevices: VisionMobile estimates that revenue generated via iOS devices accounts for at least 60% of the total revenue in the business and productivity market.

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For developers that target the business & productivity sector it makes sense to prioritise iOS for development over the other platforms they develop for. However, there are several considerations to take into account such as integration with existing enterprise services, which may call for an HTML approach or the specific market that you target.

Where are the opportunities in the enterprise app market?

There is an inherent unpredictability associated with the future use of apps and it is exactly this unpredictability that empowers developers to create innovative apps that continue to redefine whole markets and industries. Nevertheless, we can still identify a number of areas that currently attract considerable attention among businesses and where we see future value being unleashed in the business & productivity market:

Vertical apps
Specialised industry apps such as healthcare, real estate, finance or automotive. Vertical specialisation provides a great opportunity for differentiation and for building strong brands as the app economy diffuses into every single industry. Existing industry stakeholders can leverage apps as a differentiation strategy against “un-apped” competitors, integrating apps and exposing APIs across their product offerings. For independent developers, specialisation is a means to capture a niche and survive the discoverability labyrinth.

Productivity/BYO
Apps that cross the boundaries between private-use and work-use, such as storage, lists, calendars, office-type apps are key drivers behind the consumerisation of enterprise IT. Once into an organisation or an enterprise app store, such apps can spread rapidly within organisations.

Mobile SaaS
Software-as-a-Service, delivering CRM, HR, ERP, BI services to small businesses and large enterprises is a booming sector. Mobile apps extend these capabilities much further by allowing anytime/anyplace access to these core business services.

Custom apps/services
Bespoke mobile solutions delivered outside of app stores will continue to take the lion’s share of revenues within the business and productivity app market. As we discussed, the dominance of this model will erode during the next few years as app store purchases increase among enterprises.

MDM/MAM
Apps and services that tackle security and complexity of the decentralised IT department are already essential for any enterprise that adopts BYO policies. More sophisticated app & device management models, that tackle some of the key issues associated with this trend (e.g. managing private/work services, remote deletion of work content) will continue to be hot areas in the next few years, catering to an increasing number of use cases.

Download our free “Business and Productivity Apps” report to find out more about the developer opportunity in this market and the reason you should be developing business and productivity apps.

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Business

A guide to building your app business

So you want to start a business developing apps? Or maybe you have an app business but want some advice on how to grow or improve it? [tweetable]Simply building an app and publishing it on app store as a paid download is extremely likely to result in disappointment[/tweetable]. This shouldn’t be news to you if you’ve been following the industry in the last few years but what should you do instead? In this article we’ll look at some strategies to increase your chances of building a successful app business.

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Risk versus reward

Building a product to sell is exciting and full of creative possibilities but it’s also always a risky approach. If your primary interest is in designing and building apps and solving problems then a far lower risk app business is a software services business. Developers who make most of their revenue from contract development work have the highest median wages by far, in other words, very few of them can’t pay their bills! That said, if you’re planning a software services company it makes sense to use any downtime from client work to build your own products. It can not only generate some additional income but also gives you something you can show potential clients publically (a lot of clients won’t let you publish the fact that you built their app). In our previous surveys, developers who’ve earned a small fraction of their revenue from app stores and the rest from contract work have done significantly better than those doing 100% contract work.

Of course the trade-off with a services business is that the upside is very limited. Global competition makes it hard to charge significantly in excess of typical developer wages. On the other hand, there are several examples of small teams with a hit app that has made them millions of dollars. Our survey data consistently shows that these successes are very much the exceptions. [tweetable]Only a small minority of app development projects are significantly profitable[/tweetable]. Even if you think you’ve got a great idea and a great team then, unless you’re spending your investors money, seriously consider balancing your product development work with some contract development.

Businesses versus consumers

If you’re building products, consider your audience carefully. [tweetable]Who you build your apps for has a massive influence on how successful you’re like to be[/tweetable]. In general businesses are much more willing to pay for software than consumers. As I’ve written before, developers targeting enterprises make four times as much as those targeting consumers on average and yet the latter face much greater competition. Don’t think that targeting organisations rather than individuals means you’re limited to automating business processes. There’s lots of complex and interesting software that businesses need, for example visualization tools to help sell product and projects, or even to help construct things in the real world. There are also extremely simple but valuable pieces of software that can make a positive difference in the lives of lots of people; I’ve met one entrepreneur who’s made a small fortune selling eye-testing software. Additionally, you may be able to target your product idea to an enterprise rather than consumers and have significantly greater success. There have been some relatively small scale successes for developers selling educational software on Apple’s App Store but most of the big successes in educational apps are selling to schools instead of or as well as direct to consumers.

If you’re determined to build consumer apps or your category of choice leaves you with little option (e.g. games) then go big or go home. [tweetable]The app stores only consistently reward the best[/tweetable]; an occasional viral hit may do very well for a short while but they’re impossible to create reliably and they rarely last. If you don’t truly believe you can make an app worthy of the top ten in your category of choice then you should probably relegate this particular passion to a side project or hobby. You don’t really need to make the top ten to earn a decent living (although doing so isn’t sufficient, you’ve got to stay somewhere near the top) but it’s best to allow for some overconfidence!

Be creative with business models

Whether you’re building games for consumers or productivity apps for businesses, design your business model along with your app or service. If you design and build the product first then try to bolt a monetization scheme on top, you may find yourself with relatively few options. A large fraction of developers are still using paid downloads or advertising as their primary revenue model despite the fact that these are the least successful options. There are exceptions where other models are not suitable (e.g most kids apps really ought to be paid download only) but [tweetable]much less than 10% of all revenue paid out by app stores comes from paid downloads[/tweetable]. Developers relying entirely on advertising rarely do much better either.

The ideal business model is some kind of subscription or annual license that produces recurring revenue. This is relatively common with services aimed at businesses but certainly won’t fit every consumer app. Most apps that are aimed at consumers need to be free to download.
There’s simply too much competition. Whether you then get paid through in-app purchases or selling some related product or service is still an area open for experimentation. We’re seeing some games developers experiment with physical toys that unlock content. Amazon wants developers to sell their products and earn a commission. There are plenty of unexplored possibilities and new technologies create new ones all the time. You’re not limited to one revenue source either, mix and match! Whatever you do, don’t copy the strategies that aren’t working for most other developers unless you have a very good reason to believe you’ve got a special case. Either copy strategies that are working or try new ones.

First balance your risks according to your finances. Select your audience carefully. Then design the business model to maximise your chances of getting the audience to part with their cash then. Do all three and you’ll have a much greater chance of success than the vast majority of your peers. Now all you need is excellent execution and a bit of luck.

Categories
Business

Fame From a Game: 5 Game Developers Dealing With Overnight Success

successful game developers

The mobile app market has completely overhauled the video game market. In an industry that once required thousands of dollars and a legion of programmers to produce a product, individuals and small groups of entrepreneurs can now produce games grossing millions of dollars from their bedrooms. However, the success of a #1 selling game does not come easy and sometimes causes more problems for the now wealthy developer. Here are five examples of successful game developers who had to learn how to handle success almost overnight.

Which game development tools help you become successful? Let us know of your favourites in the Developer Economics Survey.

Halfbrick Studios (Fruit Ninja)

Image via Flickr by Rosenfeld Media
Image via Flickr by Rosenfeld Media

Before Fruit Ninja, most people had never heard of Halfbrick Studios. They had worked on a handful of games like Rocket Power: Beach Bandits, Age of Zombies, Monster Dash, and a variety of Avatar — The Last Airbender installments. However, Fruit Ninja had the right combination of addictive and visceral gameplay to make it a virtual overnight success. For others dealing with a windfall of cash, Halfbrick Studio’s story is a good one to follow. Instead of tripping over their own feet after a massive growth spurt, the close-knit group of developers decided to focus on quality over quantity, avoiding the route companies like Zynga took (how many “___-ville” games can you name?). The developers said the success of Fruit Ninja has given them breathing room to perfect games they want to make.

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OMGPop (Draw Something)

Image via Flickr by ljguitar
Image via Flickr by ljguitar

Second in our list of successful game developers comes the OMGPOP team. A mobile gaming take on the classic pen-and-paper game of Pictionary, Draw Something is a study in how persistence can lead to huge success in the app industry. Before their top-selling drawing game took off, developer OMGPop had produced around 30 games that quickly fell into relative obscurity (do you remember Hamster Battle? No? Didn’t think so). A short time after Draw Something started topping charts relatively overnight, Zynga bought OMGPop for roughly $200 million, and the CEO of OMGPOP, Dan Porter, later went on to work for them as the vice president of their mobile division for a little over a year. Porter now continues to climb the corporate ladder and currently serves at the Head of Digital at William Morris Endeavor, the world’s largest diversified talent agency.

.GEARS Studio (Flappy Bird)

Image via Flickr by naka_hide
Image via Flickr by naka_hide

Not all overnight success stories end well as the tale of .GEARS Studio’s Flappy Bird shows us. Dong Nguyen’s creation was pulling in $50,000 a day—a veritable golden goose—making it one of the most popular games for smartphone users. However, a litany of complaints ranging from the game’s addictiveness, difficulty and resemblance to Super Mario 3 was too much for Nguyen to handle. Something about the fame mixed with user criticisms struck a nerve with the overnight app celebrity, who ultimately took down the game from app stores in mid-February 2014 without selling out to another company. It also begs the question—Was success too much for Nguyen, or was it all a stunt to generate interest for his next title?

King Digital Entertainment (Candy Crush Saga)

Image via Flickr by David Guo's Master
Image via Flickr by David Guo’s Master

Candy Crush Saga, produced by King Digital Entertainment, is one of the mobile gaming world’s most addictive releases yet. To capitalize on their virtual overnight success, King decided to try their luck on Wall Street by announcing their intent to file for an IPO, following Twitter’s example.

Rovio Entertainment (Angry Birds)

Image via Flickr by Garrett Heath
Image via Flickr by Garrett Heath

The Angry Birds franchise is the most successful smartphone game the world has ever seen. The series’ multiple installments have garnered over two billion downloads worldwide, but things weren’t always up for Rovio. It took them 51 tries on other apps before Angry Birds came around. Rovio’s strategy to deal with the success was simple—diversify. Expanding beyond the mobile platform, Rovio now produces Angry Birds clothing, books, cartoons, educational materials, movie franchise tie-ins, and more. They’ve even been eyeing the Hello Kitty franchise, looking for some indication in how they can expand their own enterprise.

Overnight success in the gaming industry is happening more and more everyday thanks to mobile technology. However, millions made in a night is no guarantee for smooth sailing. Developers soon discover they need savvy business acumen to stay afloat.

– Joe
Joe Fortunato is a tech writer based out of Tampa, FL. His extensive work for T-Mobile has afforded him the opportunity to explore many different avenues of the mobile world. App development, NFC technology, and new device specs are some of his favorite areas to cover. To get in contact with Joe, give him a shout on Twitter at @joey_fort.

If you are trying to hit the successful game developers list, then you first need to understand the Science of Mobile Game Marketing.

Which are your best and worst game development tools? Let us know and you might win amazing prizes and gear, in our Developer Economics Survey.